EXISTENTIAL THREATS:
Technology
Technology has driven humanity's progress for millennia, but we're now entering uncharted territory. Unlike previous technological revolutions, today's advances are developing exponentially, interacting with each other, and spreading globally in real-time. Without proper governance, the technologies that could elevate humanity might instead destroy our civilization, or even threaten our existence.
What makes our current technological revolution different? We're seeing multiple revolutionary technologies advancing simultaneously – artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and others – each becoming more powerful at an accelerating pace. These technologies don't exist in isolation. They interact with each other and with our social, economic, and political systems in complex ways that we cannot fully predict or control.
Primary Risks:
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Human extinction.
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Engineered pandemics.
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Economic failures from widespread cyberattacks, money theft, identity theft, fraud, market manipulation.
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Job displacement. Economic upheaval.
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Accelerated destruction of Nature.
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Autonomous weapons misused or out of control.
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Erosion of Truth.
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The Unknown.
Our governance systems have fallen dangerously behind our technological capabilities. When technologies can transform societies within years rather than generations, our decision-making systems are simply too slow and fragmented to respond effectively. We're creating increasingly powerful tools without developing the wisdom to manage them.
Here are some of the technological developments that could threaten our civilization if not properly managed:
Artificial Intelligence
The risks from AI range from near-term disruptions to potential human extinction:
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Automated chaos at scale.
AI could leave us immersed in unprecedented levels of fraud, cyber attacks, misinformation, identity theft, money theft and market manipulation – potentially overwhelming our economic, social and political systems. -
Autonomous weapons.
AI-powered weapons could make killing easier, cheaper, more selective, and more difficult to attribute, potentially destabilizing global security. Those military weapons could also be used against innocent civilians. -
Job displacement and economic upheaval.
AI could automate jobs faster than our economies can create new ones, causing severe economic disruption and political instability. -
Economic destruction of our planet.
Our globalized economy efficiently turns Nature into products and pollution, endangering our future. This process will soon go into overdrive. AI will exponentially intensify companies’ ability to design and manufacture new products, extract natural resources and manage supply chains - and then advertise those products in more targeted, addictive and aesthetically-pleasing ways. -
Superintelligent AI.
If artificial general intelligence (AGI) surpasses human intelligence and can improve itself, humanity could lose the ability to control its development or ensure its alignment with human values. With access to critical infrastructure and the ability to manipulate human affairs, superintelligent AI could reshape society against human interests. Throughout all of human history, humans have been top of the food chain - the most intelligent beings on Earth. Soon, humans may be #2. A superintelligent AI does not have to be evil in order to cause societal collapse or human extinction. Humans do not intentionally try to destroy ecosystems, yet humans have caused more species to go extinct than anything in the last 65 million years - with no evil intentions required. A superintelligent AI could commit similar careless destruction, but with greater powers than humans currently have.
Robotics and the Internet of Things
Robots are becoming highly capable and useful, and soon there may be many robots among us in our daily lives. And increasing numbers of gadgets are controlled digitally, connected to the internet: wearable health devices, automobiles, thermostats, surveillance cameras, power grids, manufacturing equipment, farming equipment, military weapons, shipping/transport systems and much more.
As the trend continues, more aspects of our lives will be controlled by computers and gadgets, so our lives are becoming more vulnerable to cyberattacks by bad actors. Even worse, a misaligned superintelligent AI could orchestrate an everything/everywhere/all-at-once cyberattack far beyond what the worst human attackers could dream of. The results: no electricity; food doesn’t get delivered; cars don’t work; military weapons get used against us, etc - we’ll let your imagination handle the rest.
Biotechnology
The democratization of biological engineering could bring cures for cancer, and also:
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Engineered pandemics.
As biological engineering tools become cheaper and more accessible, the ability to create deadly pathogens more deadly than anything in nature could spread to malicious actors, or result from accidental releases. -
Ecosystem disruption.
Genetically engineered organisms released into the environment could cause ecological havoc if they outcompete natural species. Like invasive species, but worse.
The Digital Information Environment
Our communication infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to manipulation:
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Erosion of shared truth.
AI is making it impossible to distinguish real from fake content. Social media platforms already optimize for engagement over truth, driving polarization and undermining our ability to address shared challenges. Political systems could be undermined, exactly when we need them most. -
Surveillance and control.
Advanced monitoring technologies combined with AI could enable unprecedented levels of population control and eliminate privacy.
The Unknown
AI will enable the invention of a blizzard of technologies that we can’t imagine yet. Already, humanity has poorly managed inventions that damage ecosystems, the atmosphere, human health, mental health and political discourse - all in the name of “progress.”
AI will accelerate everything.
Faster. Bigger. More.
All without governing systems able to protect us from ourselves and each other.
We are quite vulnerable.
Why Current Approaches Aren't Working
Our current governance is failing to address existential risks of technology for several key reasons:
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Competitive pressures block safety measures.
Companies and countries race to develop advanced technologies first, fearing that pausing for safety would put them at a competitive disadvantage. This creates powerful incentives to cut corners on safety research and ignore potential catastrophic risks. -
Regulation happens only after damage occurs.
Our governance systems typically react to harms after they've happened, but with existential risks, we cannot afford to learn from catastrophic failure – we must prevent it before it occurs. -
National governments can't manage global technologies.
Individual countries cannot effectively regulate technologies that spread instantly across borders. When one nation imposes restrictions, development simply shifts to places with fewer safeguards. -
Technical complexity overwhelms policymakers.
Many technologies are now so complex that policymakers struggle to understand them, let alone regulate them effectively. The expertise gap between developers and regulators grows larger each year.
Promising Solutions a Redesigned United Nations Could Do:
1. Global Agency for Technology Governance and Rapid Response
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Create a powerful international agency with the authority to pause development or deployment of dangerous technologies until proper safety measures are established. And if an already-released technology becomes dangerous, it could be shut down. Rapid response teams need to address dangerous developments within days, not years.
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The agency would be authorized to inspect any facility in the world, without notice. This includes access to all digital or physical property.
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Empower the agency to act quickly, but with oversight from UN legislative bodies elected to represent humanity's interests.
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Staff this agency with world-class experts in relevant fields – computer science, biology, chemistry, physics, and also ethics, psychology, economics, and other social sciences. Pay salaries competitive with the private sector, to attract top talent.
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Create global monitoring networks of independent experts to identify concerning developments before they reach dangerous thresholds.
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Establish mandatory licensing and certification systems for researchers, developers and users of potentially dangerous technologies, requiring thorough safety training, adherence to strict ethical guidelines, and monitoring.
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Fund advanced research on safety measures. This agency has to innovate even more quickly than the technologies it will defend us from.
2. Realigned Economic Incentives
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Establish strong legal liability for technologies with existential risk potential, making developers financially responsible for harmful outcomes. The threat of crushing penalties will keep developers focused on safety. This cannot be the usual slap-on-the-wrist penalties often imposed by court cases. Given the severity of these threats, the punishments must be severe.
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To realize the benefits of technology, fund research prizes and implementation grants for technological solutions to humanity's greatest challenges. Solutions to climate change, pandemics or inequality may not involve products for sale by for-profit companies. The UN can guide global investment toward pro-social, pro-planet technology that markets may not reward.
3. Democratized Technology Assessment
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Create mechanisms for meaningful public input on technologies with far-reaching societal impacts.
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Ensure representation from diverse global perspectives and values, not just technical or economic considerations from wealthy countries.
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Develop educational resources to help citizens understand complex technologies and participate meaningfully in governance decisions.
A redesigned United Nations would not stifle human ingenuity or technological progress. Rather, it would create the conditions for innovation to flourish safely, directing our remarkable creative energies toward technologies that benefit humanity while preventing developments that could lead to catastrophe.
The technological revolution demands a governance revolution.
We need global institutions as sophisticated, agile, and powerful as the technologies they aim to govern.
Our shared future depends on closing the gap between what we can create and what we can responsibly manage.
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