EXISTENTIAL THREATS:
Climate Change
Climate change is changing everything before our very eyes. With warming global temperatures we can expect: water shortages, food shortages, storms, floods, wildfires, violent conflict, massive migration, more disease, extinctions, and ecosystem collapses. Without a fix, these burdens could cause the global economy to collapse. Billions of people would soon die and suffer.
We are on the verge of tipping points and feedback loops in Earth systems that could spark warming far greater than what is already caused by fossil fuels. Melting permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide, warming the atmosphere further. Melting ice caps change from white ice to dark water, absorbing more of the sun’s heat instead of reflecting it. Warming forests dry out and are more likely to burn, releasing more carbon dioxide. And there are several more feedback loops like this. So, we should not expect climate change to be a gradual, linear process. It is starting to accelerate, and could greatly intensify at any time.
Primary Risks:
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Water shortages
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Food shortages:
hunger, inflation -
Storms, floods
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Sea level rise
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Massive migration
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Fires
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Forest loss
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Property loss:
insurance industry collapse -
Ecosystem dysfunction
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The Unknown
Our economy and society are not prepared. Farming will be much harder with unpredictable weather, and will become impossible in some places. Food shortages would lead to much higher food prices, triggering uncontrollable inflation - not to mention tremendous starvation and conflict. Too many disasters could overwhelm the insurance industry, a bedrock of the economy. Governments may not keep up with recovery efforts and economic turmoil.
There could be profound effects we cannot even predict.
All of human history has taken place on a functioning planet.
Our fundamental reality will be different soon.
The science of climate change has been clear for decades, and a strong majority of citizens around the world believe climate change deserves urgent action, but public policies are entirely inadequate compared to the threat.
Despite good progress on renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing, because overall energy use is still increasing. We have a globally competitive economy, so individual countries disadvantage themselves if they "go green" and reduce their consumption.
Why Current Approaches Aren't Working
The Paris Climate Agreement represents the world’s best effort so far, but it has critical flaws:
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It's voluntary, with no enforcement mechanisms. Countries have a long track record of not meeting their climate agreements, because there's no consequence for failing.
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Competition between nations prevents the level of cooperation needed. While most countries acknowledge the climate crisis, they remain locked in economic competition that prioritizes short-term growth over long-term survival.
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There's no coordination of the renewable energy supply chain, leaving poorer countries unable to compete for limited resources like solar panels and batteries. Instead, they may use more fossil fuels to power their growing economies.
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Climate resilience investments are uneven across the globe, with vulnerable regions lacking resources to prepare for and recover from climate disasters.
Promising Solutions a Redesigned United Nations Could Do:
1. Enforceable Emissions Reduction
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All countries would be mandated to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions every year by a specific percentage, leading to net zero emissions within a reasonable timeframe.
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Poorer countries would have longer transitions, recognizing their smaller historical contributions to climate change and more limited economic means.
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Non-compliance would trigger economic sanctions severe enough to make compliance the more economical choice.
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Penalties would be implemented through taxes on fossil fuels in non-complying countries, creating a built-in mechanism that naturally discourages emissions.
2. Global Renewable Energy Distribution System
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Create a coordinated global system for fairly distributing solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and other green technologies.
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Ensure that limited manufacturing capacity and mineral supplies are allocated based on strategic climate priorities rather than purchasing power.
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Prevent poorer countries from being priced out of the transition to green energy, which would otherwise force them to increase fossil fuel use as their economies and populations grow.
3. Climate Resilience Coordination
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Help vulnerable countries be more resilient against climate shocks: flood management infrastructure; water systems and sanitation; irrigation; cooling centers; strengthened food systems.
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Create rapid deployment capabilities to respond to climate disasters anywhere in the world.
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Design these systems to prevent economic collapse, out-migration, political instability, and violence that could otherwise spread globally.
4. Shared Funding Responsibility
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Implement a binding funding formula where all countries contribute according to their means to directly support the renewable energy and climate resilience initiatives described above.
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Wealthier countries would contribute proportionally more, recognizing both their greater capacity and their larger historical role in creating the crisis.
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Penalties and sanctions collected from non-compliant countries would provide additional funding, creating a self-reinforcing system where climate violations help fund climate solutions.
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Ensure funding sources are stable and predictable, not dependent on changing political priorities within individual nations.
5. Carbon Capture Incentives
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Create a new global Carbon Currency, backed by major economic powers including the US, China, and EU.
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Distribute this currency as rewards for verifiable carbon removal through direct air capture, soil or ocean sequestration, forest protection, and other proven methods.
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Make the currency easily convertible to major world currencies, guaranteed by participating central banks.
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Incentivize the growth of carbon capture industries at the scale needed to address the climate crisis.
The above is just a sampling of what's possible with a stronger United Nations.
An unrestrained free market will eat the world.
Because our economy is so globally interconnected,
and our climate is shared by all nations,
management at the global level is absolutely essential.
NEXT THREAT:
