EXISTENTIAL THREATS:
Destruction
of Nature
Primary Risks:
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Water shortages
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Food shortages:
hunger, inflation -
Pandemic disease
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Increased climate change
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Reduced fertility in humans and most animals
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Economic depression or collapse
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The Unknown
A special note on "Nature":
Sometimes Nature is intentionally capitalized. This is done to show reverence, similar to how "God" might be capitalized.
Natural ecosystems that evolved over millions of years can be destroyed in one day. We humans have an endless appetite for meat, energy, and nearly infinite products for our pleasure and convenience. So we developed technology and systems to exploit the Earth faster and faster. Our growing global economy devours irreplaceable Nature and converts Her into products and pollution.
We are in the Earth's 6th mass extinction, losing species faster than any time in the last 65 million years, when the dinosaurs died off. Human activities have pushed Earth systems beyond six of the nine planetary boundaries that determine a safe environment for human flourishing. Humans have replaced half of Nature with agriculture; 80% of that agricultural land is to produce meat, which for most people is not necessary for human health. The Nature that remains is severely challenged by pollution, development, exploitation of resources and climate change.
To feed current global consumption of all goods and energy, we would need 1.7 Earths, and obviously we only have one. Wealthier countries consume the most. For instance, if all humans consumed like Americans, we would need 5 Earths.
Earth systems are being broken beyond repair,
threatening humans with food and water shortages,
pandemic disease, uncontrollable climate change and economic collapse.
Our world economy has become deeply interconnected, accelerating Nature's destruction. Most humans now purchase goods from around the world. Exponential economic growth and consumption have been enabled by:
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Global communications: internet shopping, advertising, social media influencers
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Complex international supply chains
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Improved global shipping networks
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Integrated global financial markets
In our globally interconnected economy, if you eat a steak or buy a product, you may be destroying Nature in some other country, usually without even realizing it. Your retirement fund might invest in companies clearing the Amazon Rainforest. The palm oil in your candy bar might come from another cleared rainforest. A single smartphone contains raw materials and parts from dozens of countries, assembled in yet another, and shipped globally. Multiply that by billions of consumers and millions of products. This complexity is too vast for individual consumers, or even individual countries, to manage effectively. The work of protecting Nature requires coordination at the global level.
Classical economics tells us that economic growth is always good. But economists invented that notion before modern science revealed that our economy is breaking the planet. Our economic systems and beliefs need to be modernized for our new age of existential threat. An unrestrained free market will devour Nature until there's nothing left. The role of governments is to place guardrails that protect society and planet from the more animalistic impulses of capitalism.
Why Current Approaches Aren't Working
Despite decades of conservation efforts and environmental agreements, the destruction of Nature continues to accelerate. Current approaches have failed for several key reasons:
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Global environmental protection programs are largely voluntary and underfunded.
Most conservation agreements lack meaningful enforcement mechanisms, allowing countries and corporations to prioritize short-term economic gain over ecological health. -
Economic systems fail to value Nature.
Our global economy treats Nature as free for the taking, with no accounting for the true costs of ecosystem destruction. When something isn't properly valued, it gets overused and destroyed. -
Competition between nations prevents coordinated action.
Countries fear economic disadvantage if they restrict resource extraction while others continue exploiting Nature. Similarly, nations hesitate to reduce consumption levels if their economic competitors won't do the same. This creates a "race to the bottom" where everyone is trapped in harmful patterns they can't escape individually. -
Consumption patterns in wealthy countries drive global resource extraction.
Without coordinated agreements to shift these patterns, individual countries that attempt to reduce consumption face economic penalties in a competitive global market. -
Local efforts, while valuable, cannot address the global scale of the problem.
Ecosystems cross national boundaries, as do the economic forces driving their destruction.
This is a classic collective action problem. Even when individual actors understand what needs to be done, they remain trapped in destructive patterns because changing alone would put them at a disadvantage. A redesigned United Nations can make new rules and incentives to help all countries to act together for their mutual benefit.
Promising Solutions a Redesigned United Nations Could Do:
1. Make It Expensive to Destroy Nature
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Impose fees on resources extracted from the Earth: trees, fossil fuels, minerals, fish, water, and so forth, as well as natural land converted to farmland or development. Products using these resources would then reflect their real environmental cost.
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Keep increasing these resource fees until higher prices make consumption decline.
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Use this pricing to incentivize efficiency, recycling, re-use, frugality, and development of environmentally-friendlier alternatives.
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Direct the proceeds to help low-income people afford the higher costs of goods, and invest in environmental protection efforts like renewable energy and recycling systems.
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Impose hard on limits excessive consumption, such as private jets and mansions.
2. Sustainable Consumption Standards
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Establish global targets for reducing overconsumption, particularly in wealthy countries.
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Create standardized sustainability labels for products that reflect their full environmental impact.
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Develop alternatives to GDP that measure true prosperity, including environmental health and human wellbeing.
3. Global Nature Preservation System
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Preserve 50% of the world's land and oceans as Nature, with binding targets and enforcement mechanisms.
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Implement a fair payment system from wealthy countries to biodiverse-rich poorer countries, enabling them to feed their people and develop their economies without exploiting Nature.
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Prioritize indigenous peoples as stewards of their native lands wherever possible, recognizing their proven track record as effective environmental managers.
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Create protected corridors between preserved areas to allow wildlife migration and genetic interchange.
4. Earth Systems Command Center
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Teams of scientists and economists would operate the above-mentioned systems for environmentally managing the global economy. Doing this right requires serious expertise and funding. This process would have oversight by UN legislative bodies, but most decisions would be based on scientific evidence rather than political or economic expediency. Use transparent processes that prevent industry capture of regulatory functions.
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Equip the center with real-time monitoring systems, satellite data, AI analysis, and predictive modeling to anticipate environmental tipping points before they occur.
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Give this agency authority to ban forever chemicals, endocrine disrupting chemicals, and other substances that cause irreversible harm to human and ecosystem health.
The above is just a sampling of what's possible with a stronger United Nations.
An unrestrained free market will eat the world.
Because our economy is so globally interconnected,
and Nature is shared by all nations and all living things,
management at the global level is absolutely essential.
NEXT THREAT:
